War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".